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And February, as well the previous two winter months, soared well past the internationally set threshold for long-term warming, Copernicus reported Wednesday. February 2024 averaged 13.54 degrees Celsius (56.37 degrees Fahrenheit), breaking the old record from 2016 by about an eighth of a degree. Climate scientists say most of the record heat is from human-caused climate change of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. Additional heat comes from a natural El Nino, a warming of the central Pacific that changes global weather patterns. The three-month period was the most any season has been above pre-industrial levels in Copernicus record keeping, which goes back to 1940.

Persons: Copernicus, El, it’s, ”, Jennifer Francis, ” Francis, El Nino, Francesca Guglielmo, “, Brian McNoldy, Natalie Mahowald, Francis, ___ Read, Seth Borenstein Organizations: WASHINGTON, European Union, El Nino, El, Climate, University of Miami, Cornell University, Associated Press Locations: European, Paris, El, El Ninos, AP.org

☆ ‘Super El Niño’ is here, but will it last? What’s in store for the coming months
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Mary Gilbert | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —The current El Niño is now one of the strongest on record, new data shows, catapulting it into rare “super El Niño” territory. It means a very strong El Niño is ongoing. El Niño influences weather around the globe, so its strength and demise will continue to have an impact on the weather we experience in the coming months. Average conditions during an El Niño winter across the continental US. El Niño has been known to enhance atmospheric river events on the West Coast.

Persons: El, El Niño, Niño, Michelle L’Heureux, ” L’Heureux, L’Heureux, El Niños, Javier Torres, There’s, CNN’s Rachel Ramirez, Brandon Miller Organizations: CNN, El, AFP, Getty Locations: El, California, West Coast, Americas, Chile, Valparaiso, South America, Africa, Australia, Asia

At least 112 people have been killed by wildfires in central Chile, leading its president to declare two days of national mourning. Scientists say climate change makes the heat waves and drought now hitting South America more likely — and both contribute to wildfires by drying out the plants that feed the blazes. “Climate change has made droughts more common,” said Mitchard. Climate change makes stronger El Niños more likely, said Mitchard, and droughts caused by it are likelier to be more intense. And the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that globally, extreme heat waves happen five times more often because of human-caused global warming.

Persons: Edward Mitchard, ”, We’ve, Mitchard, — Organizations: South America, University of Edinburgh School of Geosciences, it's, World Resources Institute, Associated Press Locations: Chile, Colombia, CHILE, Santiago, Scotland, South America, Belgium, AP.org

Finally Souza, an innkeeper and community leader in Bela Vista do Jaraqui, said he rallied two dozen neighbors to drill a 60-meter well in the heart of the world's largest freshwater basin. With rivers forming the backbone of transportation across the Amazon region, the drought has disrupted access to food and medicine in dozens of cities. The Amazon, the world's largest rainforest, is regarded by scientists as a bulwark against climate change because its dense vegetation absorbs carbon and emits oxygen. The five researchers predicting a 2026 recovery said the effects of the drought could endure even longer if El Nino is prolonged. That would release huge amounts of carbon dioxide, contributing to climate change and wiping out a wealth of plant and animal species found only in the Amazon.

Persons: Bruno Kelly, Raimundo Leite de Souza, Souza, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Michael Coe, we're, El Nino, Coe, El, Philip Fearnside, Henrique Barbosa, Eduardo Taveira, Taveira, Paulo Brando, Brando, Barbosa, Brad Haynes, Jake Spring, Ana Mano, Andre Romani, Suzanne Goldenberg Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Rio, cobras, United, Reuters, Research Center, National Institute of, Research, University of Maryland, Honda, LG, Positivo, GIANTS, Yale University, Sao Paulo, Thomson Locations: Tefe, Amazonas, Brazil, Rights MANAUS, caimans, Bela Vista, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Venezuela, Colombia, United Nations, U.S, South America, South, Pacific, North America, El Nino, University, Baltimore, Western Europe, Brazil's Amazonas, Manaus, Itacoatiara, Madeira Rivers, Sao Paulo, Sao

☆ 2023 El Niño winter: New maps reveal who could see more snowfall
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Mary Gilbert | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

NOAA Climate.govThe map above depicts how much snow differs from average across all El Niño winters, regardless of El Niño’s strength. Snowfall during all stronger El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average (after the long-term trend has been removed). The number of years with below-average snowfall during the 13 moderate-to-strong El Niño winters (January-March average) since 1959. Red shows locations where more than half the years had below-average snowfall; gray shows locations where below-average snowfall happened in less than half the years studied. On the map above, darker reds indicate areas that have experienced more years of below-average snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters.

Persons: Niño, There’s, “ El Niño, ” Michelle L’Heureux, Jon Gottschalck, Snow, El Niño Organizations: CNN, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, El, Northeast Locations: El, California, Texas, Southwest, Washington, Baltimore, Northwest, Midwest, Northeast

Unusually hot and dry weather in Mato Grosso has caught traders’ attention. October weather in North Mato Grosso BrazilIn Brazil’s southern state of Parana, October rainfall totaled around 350 mm (13.8 inches), the most for any month in at least 25 years. It is unhelpful in this analysis that there have not been many stronger El Ninos in recent years for comparison. Soy yield was 13% below trend that year, but otherwise, soy yields rarely miss in Mato Grosso, making it difficult to detect an impending disaster. In the south, Parana’s rainiest soy-growing seasons have most often coincided with El Ninos, but actual yield outcomes are mixed.

Persons: El Nino, Mato Grosso’s, Mato, La Nina, El, Karen Braun, Rod Nickel Organizations: Mato Grosso, Farmers, El Ninos, El Nino, Iowa, La, El, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Primavera, Mato, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Brazil, Mato Grosso, North Mato, Brazil’s, Parana, U.S, Southern, Argentina

You can thank the cyclical weather pattern known as El Niño for that. Increased rainfall is likely in South America and severe drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. El Niño may have played a role in that transformation over a scant 24 hours; the warmer sea surface temperatures associated with the weather pattern provide favorable conditions for hurricane development in the eastern Pacific. The human toll of these El Niño repercussions is immense. As we enter another year of El Niño, one that could be “historically strong,” the challenge is on for rich nations to coordinate and deepen their assistance to developing countries before they face these foreseeable consequences.

Persons: Hurricane Otis, El Locations: South America, Australia, Indonesia, Asia, Peru, India, Pacific Coast, Mexico, El

☆ Opinion: Why we’re seeing so many deadly floods
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jessica Chia | Opinion Adam H. Sobel | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Is this climate change, or just a particularly severe bunch of weather flukes happening in close succession due to the climate’s own natural variability? But climate change acts by loading the dice on many types of weather events. That shouldn’t be comforting; climate change could be playing a larger role than we expect in many of these events. Even without climate change, it would behoove us to catch up on their maintenance, or, where these dams are no longer truly needed, remove them. What we know about climate change and extreme weather should strengthen that motivation; what we don’t know should strengthen it even more.

Persons: Adam H, Sobel, Columbia University’s Lamont, Adam Sobel Danny Goldfield, Daniel, it’s, El Niño, El Niños, El Organizations: Columbia, Fu Foundation School of Engineering, Applied, Twitter, CNN, Humanitarian Affairs, El Locations: Massachusetts, Hong Kong, Greece, Spain, Libya, El, Europe

☆ Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’ as scientists warn 2023 could be the hottest year on record
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( Laura Paddison | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

It works like this: As the world burns fossil fuels and pumps out planet-heating pollution, global temperatures are steadily warming. David J. Phillip/APWhile the record temperatures may have been expected, the magnitude by which some have been broken has surprised some scientists. Historically, global heat records tend to topple in El Niño years, and the current record-holder, 2016, coincided with a strong El Niño. The world gets hung up on blockbuster records but “these heat records are not exciting numbers,” she told CNN. CFOTO/Future Publishing/Getty ImagesUnheeded warningsFor climate scientists, this is the “I told you so” moment they never wanted.

Persons: –, Jennifer Francis, ” Carlo Buontempo, Copernicus, “, we’ve, ” Francis, El, ”, Friederike Otto, Andres Matamoros, David J, Phillip, Peter Stott, There’s, Robert Rohde, ” Otto, Prashanth Vishwanathan, Niño, El Niños, ” Stott, Otto said, “ Organizations: CNN, Climate Research, World Meteorological Organization, Grantham Institute, Climate, UK’s Met, ”, Bloomberg, Getty, Publishing Locations: Europe, Antarctica, Pacific, El, Houston, Berkeley, Patna, Bihar, India, Texas, Mexico, China, Beijing, Northern, Zhonghua, Handan, North China's Hebei

☆ Third quarter is a key time for extreme weather events. Here's what to expect for exposed stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The third quarter is a key time for extreme weather events. An El Niño weather pattern is widely expected for 2023. "Following three years of La Niña, climate scientists expect 2023 to have El Niño conditions with near-100% certainty given current signals," Karp said in a note to clients last month. Insurers are also among the stocks to typically move in relation to extreme weather events. This year should be a fairly typical one for hurricanes, as El Niño is typically linked to a less severe season.

Persons: Nature, —, Sophie Karp, La, Karp, El, bode, Morgan Stanley, Andrei Stadnik, Stadnik, Matthew Carletti doesn't, hasn't, Jefferies, Yaron Kinar, Brown, Arthur J, Gallagher, Aon, Niño, Generac, Aaron Jagdfeld, Bob Huang, bullish, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Energy, DTE Energy, WEC Energy, CNBC Pro's, WEC, Xcel Energy, Portland General Electric, Edison International, CenterPoint, Southern Company, Duke Energy, Nextera Energy, El, Insurance Australia Group, Suncorp, Arch Capital, Everest Re, Bloomberg, Arch Locations: El, Canada, U.S, Gulf, Pacific Northwest, California, Michigan, Avista, Portland, American, Mexico, CenterPoint Energy, Bermuda, Texas

On Thursday, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now underway. The last time a strong El Nino was in full swing, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures. Here is how El Nino will unfold and some of the weather we might expect:WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO? Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months.

Persons: El Nino, Michelle L'Heureux, El, Tom DiLiberto, DiLiberto, La Nina, Nina, Gloria Dickie, Angus MacSwan Organizations: El Nino, U.S . National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, El, Graphics, el nino, NINO, U.S . West, Nino, La, El Ninos, Thomson Locations: Americas, El, Pacific, Peru, Philippines, United States, Canada, Central, South America, Australia, of Africa, Eastern Pacific, El Nino, London

The last time an El Nino was in place, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. DECLARING EL NINOMost experts look to two agencies for confirmation that El Nino has kicked off — NOAA and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The two agencies use different metrics for declaring El Nino, with the Australian definition slightly stricter. On Tuesday, Australia issued their own bulletin, noting a 70% chance of El Nino developing this year. Experts say that a strong El Nino could hit sugar production in India and Thailand, and possibly disrupt the sugarcane harvest in Brazil.

Persons: El Nino, El, John Vizcaino, Arcodia, Gloria Dickie, Seher Dareen, Marcelo Teixeira, Angus MacSwan Organizations: U.S . National Oceanic, El, El Nino, NINO, NOAA, Australia's, Meteorology, REUTERS, El Ninos, Colorado State University, Central Pacific, Central Pacific El Nino, Nino, Thomson Locations: South America, Australia, Asia, Nino, El Nino, Pacific, Magdalena, Colombia, Honda, Central, Hawaii, Central Pacific, El, India, Thailand, Brazil, Vietnam, New York, U.S, Indonesia, Malaysia, London

However, strong suppressive trade winds have not yet allowed this warmth to disperse across the ocean and allow El Nino to gain its footing. The most recent two weeks where the anomaly was as warm or warmer were in July 2015, preceding the 2015-16 El Nino event, and in June 1998, coming off the 1997-98 event. A few forecasters see a possible Super El Nino in 2023. The timing of El Nino is most immediately pressing in the Southern Hemisphere, which begins planting wheat next month. Argentina, often wet during El Nino, is wrapping up a catastrophic crop year due to severe drought.

☆ Fact Check-Eight cooler years cannot be extrapolated to draw conclusions on long-term global warming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONSGlobal surface temperatures are heavily influenced by annual Pacific Ocean patterns known as El Nino and La Nina, and collectively as ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). A large El Nino event followed by a La Nina can “lead to a temporary ‘pause’ in global temperatures over timescales of a decade or so”, Hausfather said. This is “what we are now seeing after the 2015/2016 super El Nino event”. Whenever there is a trend with variability like global temperatures, “you can isolate cherry-picked intervals and claim that something has paused or accelerated, but this is not appropriate”, Colose said. Temperature data for the past eight years do not reflect long-term trends, experts say, and longer-term data clearly show a continuing rise in overall global temperatures.

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